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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/10200

Title: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS FOR THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTORS AFFECTING THE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) OF THE SAUDI AGRICULTURE
Authors: A. ABO ELWAFA
MOSTAFA M. MANSOUR
Issue Date: 1992
Abstract: The imbalance between growth rate of agricultural loans and subsidies provided the government to farmers and the growth rate of GDP in Agriculture is of important concern. The average growth rate for loans and subsidies for the period 1975-1988 was 23.75%, while the average growth rate of agricultural GDP was only 10.6%, for the same period. Therefore, it is very important to: (1) identify factors influencing the agricultural GDP in Saudi Arabia, (2) analyze the relative importance of each factor, (3) and forecast the value of GDP of Saudi agriculture in the near future. Time series data were used and four regression models were identified in the following functional forms: linear, double-log quadratic and squares root. The double-log model was selected with reference to statistical and economic considerations. To forecast the value of agriculture (GDP). The double exponential smoothing technique was used to obtain accurate predicted values. The results showed that cultivated area, animal units and tractors in use were the most important factors affecting the agriculture (GDP). Cultivated area represents the first factor in rank influencing the GDP in agriculture followed by animal units and tractors in use, respectively. This implies that horizontal expansion was more effective policy tool for the Saudi agriculture in the study period. Predicted values of agriculture (GDP) for 1993 were estimated at SR 27892 and SR 25374 million for the optimistic and the conservative conditions, respectively.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/10200
Appears in Collections:College of Foods And Agricultural Science

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